A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
