Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
